Buying In Samarkand While La Cumbre Plaza Rebuilds Next Door
August 6, 2026
August 6, 2026
A buyer walked a Samarkand listing with me in June. Nice bones, mid-century layout, quiet block off Las Positas. Then she asked the question that changes the whole conversation: "What is that going to be in five years?" She was pointing at the Macy's roofline.
Fair question. The median tells you Samarkand sits below the citywide number and offers a walkable path to Whole Foods, Gelson's, and MacKenzie Park. The parcel line tells you something the median does not. The 31-acre shopping center along the neighborhood's northern edge is being rebuilt by application, not by plan, and the paperwork already on file adds up to more than a thousand new housing units within a short walk of the homes you would tour this weekend.
That is the thesis of this post. A Samarkand purchase in 2026 is not the same asset it was in 2022, because the parcel next door is being rezoned one owner at a time, and the buyer's window to underwrite that change is narrower than the aggregate market data suggests.
Three things surface once you are actually in contract on a Samarkand home near La Cumbre Road or Hope Avenue, and none of them appear on the standard disclosure package.
First, construction staging. Two four-story projects on separate parcels means two separate haul routes, two separate contractor lay-down yards, and no coordinated schedule. The city tried to pay for that coordination and lost. The Santa Barbara County Association of Governments declined a $1.1 million city request to produce a La Cumbre Plaza Specific Plan, so the projects proceed piecemeal.
Second, retail churn. Macy's lease at 3805 State Street expires in 2028, at which point the anchor building comes down. The stores across the street, including Panda Express, Chipotle, and See's Candies, are expected to remain, but the tenant mix on the plaza's interior parcels will move during the build cycle. If your buying decision rests on walking to a specific store, verify its lease.
Third, boundary-street noise. Buyers who love the upper edge of Samarkand near State Street or Foothill/192 already inherit road noise on those blocks. Add a decade of construction traffic on La Cumbre Road and Hope Avenue and the window and wall assemblies on the north-facing rooms become an inspection item, not a footnote.
Here is what has actually been filed and where each project sits in the process.
Matthew and Jim Taylor submitted a formal planning application on June 6, 2024 to demolish the Macy's building at 3805 State Street and construct a 680-unit mixed-use rental project on the 8.7-acre parcel. The mix is studios, one-, two-, and a few three-bedroom units, with 54 homes reserved for very low- and moderate-income households under the State Density Bonus Law. The city's press materials describe the site as the first domino, and the City of Santa Barbara's redevelopment page is where formal notices and hearing dates get posted.
The owner of the 9.5-acre former Sears parcel at 3845 State Street submitted a formal application on May 14, 2025 for a 443-unit rental project in two four-story buildings. The Santa Barbara Architectural Board of Review sent it back for design changes in November 2025, calling the massing "decidedly vertical" and asking for a paseo that gives the public a walking route through the block. AO Architects is on the applicant team. The buildings' massing and site plan were largely unchanged from the March 2025 submission, which is the pattern to watch: a design cycle that revises materials and articulation while holding the unit count.
Not the same story, but on the same block. The Housing Authority of the City of Santa Barbara broke ground on April 22, 2026 for a 45-unit Section 8 project on South Hope Avenue, an 18-month build totaling $44.8 million. It is the first project funded from the city's Local Housing Trust Fund, created in 2024, and the Tri-Counties Regional Center added $1 million. Construction on this smaller site is what a Samarkand buyer will hear and see first, well before the Macy's parcel comes down.
Two policy moves compressed the schedule that most buyers assume for a project of this scale.
The first is Assembly Bill 130, signed by Governor Newsom on June 30, 2025. It created a statutory CEQA exemption for qualifying urban infill housing on previously developed land. City staff are evaluating whether the La Cumbre Plaza applications qualify. If they do, an environmental review process that historically added years to entitlements gets removed from the critical path.
The second is the state Density Bonus Law. Because the Taylor project reserves a share of units for very low-income households, the applicant is entitled to waivers on height and other development standards, and the city's ordinary land use authority is constrained. The Architectural Board of Review can and does push back on articulation and materials. It cannot push back on the number of units or the base envelope the state law allows.
"This development is as significant to our city as when La Cumbre Plaza was originally built nearly 60 years ago." — Councilmember Eric Friedman, whose district includes upper State Street and Samarkand
Read the two policy pieces together and the practical answer is that the design will keep evolving in public hearings, but the unit count and general massing are close to fixed. That is the piece a buyer should underwrite.
Below the citywide numbers, 2026 has been a reset year. Here is where the South Coast landed at the mid-year point:
| Metric | Mid-2026 | Change vs. year-end 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| South Coast median, houses/PUDs | $2,147,500 | Down about 8% |
| Active MLS listings, countywide | 286 | Down from 348 a year earlier |
| Single-family months of inventory | ~2 | Tightened from prior year |
| Share of June sales closing above asking | ~25% | Well-prepared listings still competitive |
Source: Santa Barbara Association of Realtors mid-year review published in the Santa Barbara Independent on July 23, 2026, and Stan Tabler's June 2026 South Coast data.
Samarkand's typical single-family band tends to sit below the South Coast median. That matters in a repricing year because the softer negotiating environment reaches Samarkand's price band with more force than it reaches the Riviera or Montecito. The gap is real. So is the trade. You are paying a below-median number for a neighborhood whose walkable value proposition rests on the corridor that is about to be rebuilt.
A 2026 Samarkand offer is a bet on what upper State Street becomes on the other side of the construction. The buyers I have watched underwrite that bet well share three habits.
Is Samarkand actually inside the redevelopment area? No. The plaza sits on the neighborhood's northern edge along La Cumbre Road and State Street. Samarkand's residential streets are not being upzoned by these applications. The change is adjacency, not annexation.
Will the Macy's building really come down? Macy's has publicly confirmed the store will close by 2028 when its lease ends, and the Taylor family's application is written around demolition of that building and its parking. Timing depends on entitlements and financing, but the closure is on the record.
Does the Architectural Board of Review still have leverage? Yes on design, articulation, materials, and public access features like the paseo the board requested for the Sears parcel. Not on unit count or the base height and density permitted under state law when affordable units are included.
Where do I read the actual filings? The city posts application status, hearing schedules, and staff reports on its La Cumbre Plaza redevelopment page. That is the primary source. Everything else is commentary.
If you are weighing a Samarkand purchase in 2026, the median is not the number to anchor on. The parcel line to the north is. I walk buyers through construction impacts, north-side inspection items, and comp interpretation on a home-by-home basis, and I would rather answer three uncomfortable questions before you write an offer than after you close. Caleb Overton — request a complimentary home valuation or a private conversation about how the La Cumbre corridor changes your target block.
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